There Isn't Just One Housing Market in 2026: Which of These 4 Are You In?

Are you trying to figure out whether now is a good time to buy or sell a home in Maryland? The answer may depend less on “the housing market” and more on which housing market you personally are in.

That's one of the biggest lessons we're seeing in real estate in 2026.

You may hear one headline saying buyers have more negotiating power.

Another says home prices are still rising.

Someone else says homeowners aren't selling because they don't want to give up their low mortgage rates.

Then you see builders advertising incentives and mortgage-rate buydowns on new homes.

How can all of those things be true at the same time?

Because there isn't just one housing market operating right now.

Keeping Current Matters recently highlighted four distinct groups shaping today's market:

1. Cash buyers

2. Buyers who need mortgage financing

3. Homeowners who feel “locked in” by a low mortgage rate

4. Homebuilders trying to sell new construction

Each group is experiencing the 2026 real estate market differently.

And here in Harford County, Baltimore County, Cecil County, Baltimore City, and surrounding Maryland communities, there's another layer to the story:

Real estate conditions can change dramatically depending on the county, neighborhood, price range, and property you're considering.

That's why at McArtor & Co., we don't believe buyers and sellers should make major decisions based solely on national headlines.

We look at your situation, your neighborhood, your financing, your competition, and your goals.

Let's break down today's four housing markets in plain English.

First: Maryland Is Not Following the National Market Exactly

Before looking at the four groups, it's important to understand what's happening here at home.

Maryland REALTORS® reported that 5,582 homes sold statewide in August 2026, an 8.5% decline from August 2025.

But Maryland's median sales price still increased 2.3% to $445,000.

The biggest issue continues to be supply.

Only 6,249 new properties came onto the market in August, down 23.6% from the previous year, while active inventory was 13.7% lower. Maryland had roughly three months of available housing inventory.

That matters because some national markets have seen inventory build substantially.

Maryland has not experienced the same pattern statewide.

So when you hear:

“It's a buyer's market now.”

or

“It's still a seller's market.”

our answer at McArtor & Co. is:

“Where—and at what price point?”

That's the question that matters.

The Local Numbers Prove Every Market Is Different

Take a look at the most recent rolling three-month housing data ending in August 2026:

Redfin's data also shows price reductions on roughly 22.9% of Harford County listings, 22.6% in Baltimore County, and 24.5% in Cecil County. County-level figures can be influenced by the mix and number of homes selling during a particular period, so they should not be interpreted as the expected appreciation or value of an individual property.

Look at how different those numbers are.

That's exactly why McArtor & Co. believes local real estate knowledge matters more than ever.

Now let's look at the four markets buyers and sellers are navigating.

Market #1: The Cash Buyer

Cash remains a significant force in today's housing market.

According to the National Association of REALTORS®, 26% of existing-home purchases in July 2026 were all-cash transactions—roughly one out of every four home purchases.

Some of these buyers are investors.

Others are downsizing homeowners.

And many longtime homeowners have accumulated substantial equity that allows them to sell one home and purchase another without taking out a traditional mortgage.

Why Cash Can Be Powerful

A cash buyer doesn't need mortgage approval for the purchase.

That can potentially mean fewer financing-related uncertainties and a quicker settlement.

But here's something sellers sometimes misunderstand:

The highest cash offer isn't automatically the best offer—and the cash offer isn't automatically the best offer either.

Suppose you receive:

Offer A: $500,000 cash.

Offer B: $510,000 with strong conventional financing.

Which should you take?

There's not enough information yet.

At McArtor & Co., we would examine the complete offer.

We want to understand the inspection terms, appraisal provisions, deposits, settlement date, financing strength, seller concessions, contingencies, and ultimately your expected net proceeds and transaction risk.

That is much more important than simply seeing the word “CASH” at the top of an offer.

If You're a Cash Buyer, Don't Automatically Overpay

Cash gives a buyer flexibility.

It shouldn't become an excuse to ignore market value.

We still want to evaluate comparable sales, property condition, days on market, seller motivation, competing offers, and recent price reductions.

A cash buyer may sometimes be able to negotiate a better purchase price because the seller values certainty.

Other times, you're competing for an exceptional property and the seller has several strong offers.

Every property needs its own strategy.

That's one of the things McArtor & Co. helps buyers determine before submitting an offer.

Market #2: Buyers Using Mortgage Financing

Most buyers aren't writing a check for the entire price of a home.

They're financing.

And higher borrowing costs have dramatically changed how these buyers think about affordability.

Instead of asking only:

“What does the house cost?”

buyers increasingly need to ask:

“What will this house cost me each month?”

That's a very different conversation.

The mortgage rate, loan program, down payment, taxes, homeowner's insurance, HOA fees, mortgage insurance, seller credits, and potential rate buydown can all affect affordability.

This Is Where Seller Concessions Become Interesting

Buyers using financing may have one advantage they shouldn't overlook:

Negotiation.

Redfin reported that sellers provided concessions in 44.7% of U.S. home sales during the three months ending August 2026.

Even more relevant locally, Redfin reported concessions in 48.8% of Baltimore-metro transactions in its dataset during that period. Concessions can include assistance with closing costs, repairs, or mortgage-rate buydowns.

That's significant.

It means nearly half of the transactions captured in the Baltimore data involved some form of seller assistance.

A Buyer Doesn't Always Need a Lower Price

This is one of the strategies we want buyers to understand.

Imagine a home is listed at $400,000.

You could try negotiating the price down.

But depending on your financing, you might benefit more from negotiating seller assistance toward closing costs or a mortgage-rate buydown.

A $10,000 price reduction and a $10,000 seller concession can affect your finances very differently.

One may lower your loan balance slightly.

The other may reduce how much cash you need at settlement or potentially lower your mortgage payment.

The right choice depends on the buyer, lender, loan program, property, appraisal, and seller.

At McArtor & Co., we want the real estate strategy and financing strategy working together.

The goal isn't simply to negotiate something.

The goal is to negotiate what helps you the most.

Market #3: The Homeowner With the 3% or 4% Mortgage

This may be one of the most important forces affecting Maryland housing inventory.

Millions of homeowners financed or refinanced during the years when mortgage rates were extraordinarily low.

Now imagine having a mortgage rate in the 3% range and considering purchasing another home with today's financing costs.

It's understandable why homeowners hesitate.

Keeping Current Matters, citing Federal Housing Finance Agency data, notes that roughly two-thirds of homeowners with mortgages have rates below 5%.

This phenomenon is commonly referred to as the mortgage-rate lock-in effect.

Homeowners don't literally have to stay.

But financially, many feel reluctant to leave.

Maryland's Low Inventory Makes More Sense When You Understand Rate Lock-In

Remember the Maryland numbers:

New listings in August were down 23.6% compared with last year.

Active inventory was down 13.7%.

Mortgage-rate lock-in isn't the only reason for Maryland's inventory shortage, but it helps explain why some existing homeowners may postpone moving.

And that has consequences for everyone.

Fewer sellers mean fewer homes for buyers.

Fewer homes can help support prices.

And desirable properties can still receive substantial attention even when overall sales volume slows.

“I Have a 3% Mortgage. I'd Be Crazy To Move.”

We hear variations of this frequently.

And sometimes staying absolutely does make sense.

But your mortgage rate shouldn't make the decision by itself.

Suppose you've built substantial equity.

Maybe your family needs more space.

Maybe the children have moved out and you're maintaining a house that's twice as large as you need.

Maybe you want one-level living.

Maybe you're retiring.

Maybe you've inherited another property.

Maybe your commute has changed.

Or maybe you'd simply rather live somewhere else.

The question isn't:

“Will my new mortgage rate be higher?”

It probably will be if you're replacing a very low legacy rate.

The better question is:

“What does my total financial picture look like if I move?”

That's where your equity becomes important.

Your Equity May Change the Equation

Someone who purchased a house many years ago may have accumulated substantial equity.

That equity might allow them to put considerably more money down on their next home.

A smaller loan can sometimes offset part of the impact of a higher mortgage rate.

Some homeowners may even discover that downsizing allows them to purchase their next property with little or no mortgage at all.

At McArtor & Co., we think sellers should know these numbers before deciding they can't afford to move.

We can estimate what your current property may sell for, calculate estimated selling expenses and proceeds, and then help you understand what that equity could potentially purchase.

Then you can make an informed decision.

Market #4: New-Construction Builders

The fourth housing market is new construction.

And this market can operate under a completely different set of rules.

Nationally, new-home inventory has been relatively elevated. Keeping Current Matters points to Census data showing close to 10 months of new-home supply at the current sales pace.

Builders generally don't want completed homes sitting empty.

They have financing expenses.

They have inventory carrying costs.

And they may have another phase of homes under construction.

That can create incentives.

Builders May Negotiate Differently Than Individual Sellers

A traditional homeowner may care most about the final recorded sales price.

A builder may have other ways to create value without dramatically reducing that published price.

For example, depending on the community and builder, incentives may involve financing assistance, closing-cost contributions, upgrades, or mortgage-rate programs.

This doesn't mean every builder is offering a tremendous deal.

And incentives can change quickly.

It does mean buyers should compare the entire package, not just the advertised base price.

Should You Use Your Own Real Estate Agent When Buying New Construction?

This is something buyers frequently misunderstand.

Walking into a model home without your own agent does not mean nobody has representation.

The sales representative at the community generally represents the builder's interests.

Having your own real estate professional gives you someone focused on your side of the transaction, subject to the terms of the representation agreement and builder's policies.

At McArtor & Co., we can help buyers compare new construction against existing homes, evaluate builder incentives, examine comparable sales, discuss contract terms, and understand what may or may not be negotiable.

The important part is contacting us before your first visit or registration with a builder, because builder policies concerning buyer-agent registration can vary.

Existing-Home Sellers Are Competing With Builders Too

If you're selling a relatively new home near a new-construction community, don't ignore the builder.

The house down the street isn't necessarily your only competition.

A buyer may be comparing your property with:

A brand-new house + builder financing incentive + closing-cost assistance.

That means we need to explain why your existing home represents compelling value.

Maybe your property has a finished basement.

A fenced yard.

A deck or patio.

Window treatments.

Mature landscaping.

Appliances.

An established neighborhood.

A premium lot.

No construction happening next door.

And perhaps the buyer can move in next month instead of waiting for a home to be built.

Those features have value.

Our job at McArtor & Co. is to market that value.

So Is Harford County a Buyer's Market or Seller's Market?

This is where the original “four markets” idea becomes even more useful.

Harford County's August data shows a market that's difficult to describe with one simple label.

Redfin reports that homes sold at about 100.2% of asking price on average, while roughly 34.2% sold above list price. Yet homes were taking a median 30 days to sell, compared with 21 days a year earlier, and approximately 22.9% of listings experienced price reductions.

So which is it?

A seller's market?

A buyer's market?

It can be both depending on the house.

A beautifully updated Bel Air home priced correctly could receive immediate interest.

An overpriced property needing substantial updating may sit and eventually require a price adjustment.

A property in Fallston with acreage can have a completely different buyer pool than a townhome in Abingdon.

A waterfront home in Havre de Grace behaves differently than a condominium.

A $250,000 property operates in a different competitive environment from a $1 million property.

That's why broad labels can be misleading.

What About Baltimore County?

Baltimore County illustrates the same point.

Redfin's rolling three-month data ending in August showed a median sales price of approximately $388,699, up 6.5% year over year, with homes taking a median 34 days to sell. The average sale-to-list ratio was roughly 100.6%.

But even “Baltimore County” is far too broad to describe as one market.

Perry Hall isn't Timonium.

Towson isn't Hereford.

Dundalk isn't Phoenix.

Each area has its own housing stock, buyer pool, price ranges, inventory, and demand.

Cecil County Is Another Completely Different Story

Cecil County's rolling three-month figures ending in August showed a median sales price of approximately $417,104, though the county had only 82 sales recorded in August and year-over-year results can be affected substantially by the mix of properties sold. Homes took a median 28 days to sell, and the average sale-to-list ratio was approximately 99.3%.

That is why we would never tell a Cecil County homeowner:

“Prices went up X percent, so your house must be worth X percent more.”

Real estate doesn't work that way.

We need to look at your specific property and its comparable sales.

The Fifth Market: Your Neighborhood

The article describes four housing markets.

We'd add something important for Maryland homeowners:

Your neighborhood is its own market.

National statistics tell us where the country is heading.

Maryland statistics tell us what's happening statewide.

County statistics bring us closer.

But when it's time to make a real decision, we want to know what's happening within your community, subdivision, ZIP code, price range, and property type.

At McArtor & Co., that's where the analysis becomes truly useful.

Why This Market Makes an Experienced Local Agent More Important

During the extremely competitive markets of a few years ago, almost every home seemed to follow the same formula:

List it.

Receive multiple offers.

Choose one.

Today's market requires considerably more strategy.

Sellers need to understand pricing, presentation, competing inventory, concessions, financing, and buyer behavior.

Buyers need to understand market value, seller motivation, financing strategies, appraisal issues, concessions, inspections, and when competition does—or doesn't—justify a more aggressive offer.

And homeowners with low mortgage rates need someone who can help them understand the financial possibilities of moving before they automatically rule it out.

That's the role McArtor & Co. wants to play.

McArtor & Co.: We Don't Give You a National Answer to a Local Question

If you ask:

“Is now a good time to sell my home in Bel Air?”

You shouldn't receive an answer based solely on the national housing market.

If you ask:

“Should I buy in Fallston?”

We shouldn't answer using statistics from Phoenix or Tampa.

If you're considering a new-construction home in Harford or Baltimore County, we need to look at the builders you're actually competing with.

If you're selling in Cecil County, we need to understand the homes buyers there are comparing with yours.

Real estate is hyperlocal.

At McArtor & Co., we combine local experience, current market data, strategic pricing, modern marketing, negotiation, and individual property analysis to help our clients understand what's really happening.

Not what's happening somewhere else.

Which Housing Market Are You In?

Maybe you're a cash buyer who wants to use that advantage wisely.

Maybe you're financing and need to know whether seller assistance could improve affordability.

Maybe you're sitting on a 3% mortgage and wondering whether you can ever afford to move.

Maybe you're comparing a resale home with new construction.

Or maybe you're a homeowner wondering whether today's changing market has affected your property's value.

Those are four very different conversations.

And that's exactly why one-size-fits-all real estate advice doesn't work in 2026.

If you're thinking about buying, selling, downsizing, relocating, investing, or simply trying to understand what your home may be worth, Robert McArtor and McArtor & Co. can help you identify which market you're actually in and develop a strategy around it.

We serve buyers and sellers throughout Harford County, Baltimore County, Cecil County, Baltimore City, and surrounding Maryland communities.

Because today's question isn't simply:

“How is the housing market?”

It's:

“How is MY housing market?”

And that's the question we're here to answer.

Frequently Asked Questions About the Maryland Housing Market in 2026

Is Maryland currently a buyer's market or a seller's market?

Maryland cannot accurately be described with one label for every property. Statewide housing inventory remains relatively constrained, but conditions vary significantly by county, community, price range, property type, and condition. Some well-priced homes still generate strong competition, while other properties sit longer and provide buyers with negotiating leverage.

What are the four housing markets happening right now?

The four groups highlighted in current housing-market analysis are cash buyers, buyers using mortgage financing, homeowners reluctant to give up low mortgage rates, and new-construction builders. Each group faces different opportunities and challenges.

Is Harford County a buyer's or seller's market in 2026?

Harford County shows characteristics of both. Homes sold at approximately 100.2% of list price in Redfin's August data, but median days on market increased to 30 and roughly 22.9% of listings had price reductions. Conditions can be very different by neighborhood and price range.

Are Harford County home prices falling?

Redfin's rolling three-month data ending in August 2026 showed a median Harford County sale price of approximately $403,649, down 2.7% from the comparable period a year earlier. That countywide figure does not mean every home's value declined 2.7%; changes in the mix of homes sold can affect median prices.

Are Maryland home prices going down?

Statewide data from Maryland REALTORS® showed the opposite in August 2026: the median sales price increased 2.3% year over year to $445,000. Local markets can move differently from statewide results.

Why aren't more Maryland homeowners selling?

There are multiple reasons, but one important factor is mortgage-rate lock-in. Many existing homeowners have mortgages carrying rates well below current borrowing costs, which may make them reluctant to move. Meanwhile, Maryland's number of new listings was 23.6% lower year over year in August.

Is a cash offer always better for a home seller?

No. Cash can reduce financing uncertainty, but sellers should compare the complete terms of every offer, including price, contingencies, inspections, deposit, settlement timing, concessions, and estimated net proceeds.

Can buyers still ask Maryland sellers to pay closing costs?

Yes. Seller concessions are negotiable, subject to the contract and financing-program requirements. Redfin reported concessions in 48.8% of Baltimore-metro transactions in its three-month period ending August 2026.

What is a mortgage-rate buydown?

A mortgage-rate buydown uses funds—sometimes provided as a negotiated seller or builder concession—to reduce a buyer's mortgage interest cost according to the terms of the loan program. Buyers should have their lender calculate the actual cost, savings, and eligibility before deciding whether a buydown makes sense.

Should I sell my home if I have a 3% mortgage?

The mortgage rate is important, but it should not necessarily be the only consideration. Homeowners should evaluate their equity, expected proceeds, new housing needs, potential down payment, estimated new monthly payment, and personal goals before deciding whether to stay or move.

Are builders negotiating on new homes in 2026?

In many markets, builders have increased incentives as new-home inventory has remained elevated nationally. Incentives vary by builder, development, home, and timing, so buyers should evaluate the entire package rather than assuming every community offers the same deal.

Do I need my own Realtor when buying new construction?

Having independent buyer representation can help you evaluate the property, builder incentives, comparable sales, contract terms, inspections, and overall transaction. Buyers should contact their agent before initially registering or touring with a builder because registration and compensation policies vary.

How do I know what my Harford County home is worth?

The most useful valuation comes from examining recent comparable sales, current competing listings, pending properties, location, condition, improvements, lot characteristics, square footage, price range, and current buyer demand. McArtor & Co. can prepare a property-specific comparative market analysis rather than relying solely on a countywide statistic or automated estimate.

Who can help me understand the Harford County housing market?

McArtor & Co. helps buyers, sellers, homeowners, investors, and property owners throughout Bel Air, Fallston, Forest Hill, Abingdon, Aberdeen, Havre de Grace, Joppa, Edgewood, Darlington, and surrounding Harford County communities. Our team combines local market knowledge with pricing analysis, property marketing, financing strategy, and negotiation.

Does McArtor & Co. serve Baltimore County and Cecil County too?

Yes. McArtor & Co. works throughout Harford County, Baltimore County, Cecil County, Baltimore City, and surrounding Maryland markets, helping clients with residential homes, luxury property, investment property, commercial real estate, estate sales, land, and real estate auctions.

Sources: Keeping Current Matters, September 23, 2026; Maryland REALTORS® August 2026 Housing Statistics; National Association of REALTORS®; Redfin housing-market and seller-concession data. Market statistics represent broader trends and are not a valuation or prediction for any individual property.